London — The International Cocoa Organization has raised its 2013/2014 world cocoa production deficit prediction by 15,000 tons to -60,000, a major slide from the 2011/2012 surplus of 84,000 tons and a result of disease and drought in Brazil.
World grindings are estimated to total 3.9 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast of 4 million tons, ICCO reported in its quarterly bulletin of cocoa statistics. The cut in the grinding forecast reflects a reduced estimate for world demand, in part because of the global economic situation, particularly in Asia, according to ICCO. The Asian grind had been increasing by 23,000 tons over the season, ICCO reports, and is now increasing by just 3,000 tons.
ICCO says the first forecasts for Bahia and other Brazilian states “are not looking promising,” a result of witches’ broom fungus and early season drought. ICCO expects 30 to 50 percent crop loss in the region, cutting its estimate for Brazilian output by 35,000 tons to 195,000.