London — The International Cocoa Organization revised its deficit estimates to 52,000 metric tons for the 2012-2013 year from 60,000 metric tons in May.
While the new estimate is an improvement, it’s still 139,000 metric tons less than what the 2011-2012 season saw with an 87,000-ton surplus. World production is expected to total 3.986 million metric tons, a two-percent decrease from the year prior, with the largest drop in production, seven percent, in the Americas.
ICCO predicts 3.998 million metric tons in world grindings, rising just above a one-percent growth rate. Grindings estimates in Europe, the Americas and Africa are all up.
The increase in the revised supply estimate is partially a result of the abundant rainfall and hot weather in Ivory Coast, where ICCO forecasts the total statistical crop at 1.48 million metric tons, down from 1.49 million in the previous season. ICCO also increased Ghana’s output 30,000 metric tons to 850,000 tons. However, the current dry conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s top two growers, are problematic for next season’s crops, ICCO says.